Differentiating COVID-19 and dengue from other febrile illnesses in co-epidemics: Development and internal validation of COVIDENGUE scores.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this cohort study was to develop two scores able to differentiate coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) from dengue and other febrile illnesses (OFIs). METHODS: All subjects suspected of COVID-19 who attended the SARS-CoV-2 testing center of Saint-Pierre hospital, Reunion, between March 23 and May 10, 2020, were assessed for identifying predictors of both infectious diseases from a multinomial logistic regression model. Two scores were developed after weighting the odd ratios then validated by bootstrapping. RESULTS: Over 49 days, 80 COVID-19, 60 non-severe dengue and 872 OFIs were diagnosed. The translation of the best fit model yielded two scores composed of 11 criteria: contact with a COVID-19 positive case (+3 points for COVID-19; 0 point for dengue), return from travel abroad within 15 days (+3/-1), previous individual episode of dengue (+1/+3), active smoking (-3/0), body ache (0/+5), cough (0/-2), upper respiratory tract infection symptoms (-1/-1), anosmia (+7/-1), headache (0/+5), retro-orbital pain (-1/+5), and delayed presentation (>3 days) to hospital (+1/0). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.79 (95%CI 0.76-0.82) for COVID-19 score and 0.88 (95%CI 0.85-0.90) for dengue score. Calibration was satisfactory for COVID-19 score and excellent for dengue score. For predicting COVID-19, sensitivity was 97% at the 0-point cut-off and specificity 99% at the 10-point cut-off. For predicting dengue, sensitivity was 97% at the 3-point cut-off and specificity 98% at the 11-point cut-off. CONCLUSIONS: COVIDENGUE scores proved discriminant to differentiate COVID-19 and dengue from OFIs in the context of SARS-CoV-2 testing center during a co-epidemic.

Distinguishing non severe cases of dengue from COVID-19 in the context of co-epidemics: A cohort study in a SARS-CoV-2 testing center on Reunion island.

BACKGROUND: As coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) is spreading globally, several countries are handling dengue epidemics. As both infections are deemed to share similarities at presentation, it would be useful to distinguish COVID-19 from dengue in the context of co-epidemics. Hence, we performed a retrospective cohort study to identify predictors of both infections. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: All the subjects suspected of COVID-19 between March 23 and May 10, 2020, were screened for COVID-19 within the testing center of the University hospital of Saint-Pierre, Reunion island. The screening consisted in a questionnaire surveyed in face-to-face, a nasopharyngeal swab specimen for the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) reverse transcription polymerase chain-reaction and a rapid diagnostic orientation test for dengue. Factors independently associated with COVID-19 or with dengue were sought using multinomial logistic regression models, taking other febrile illnesses (OFIs) as controls. Adjusted Odds ratios (OR) and 95% Confidence Intervals (95%CI) were assessed. Over a two-month study period, we diagnosed 80 COVID-19, 61 non-severe dengue and 872 OFIs cases eligible to multivariate analysis. Among these, we identified delayed presentation (>3 days) since symptom onset (Odds ratio 1.91, 95% confidence interval 1.07-3.39), contact with a COVID-19 positive case (OR 3.81, 95%CI 2.21-6.55) and anosmia (OR 7.80, 95%CI 4.20-14.49) as independent predictors of COVID-19, body ache (OR 6.17, 95%CI 2.69-14.14), headache (OR 5.03, 95%CI 1.88-13.44) and retro-orbital pain (OR 5.55, 95%CI 2.51-12.28) as independent predictors of dengue, while smoking was less likely observed with COVID-19 (OR 0.27, 95%CI 0.09-0.79) and upper respiratory tract infection symptoms were associated with OFIs. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although prone to potential biases, these data suggest that non-severe dengue may be more symptomatic than COVID-19 in a co-epidemic setting with higher dengue attack rates. At clinical presentation, nine basic clinical and epidemiological indicators may help to distinguish COVID-19 or dengue from each other and other febrile illnesses.